Kentucky Presidential Elections 1964 & 2016
Presidential election map from 1964. The blue represents Democrat votes for Lyndon B. Johnson and the red represents Republican votes for Barry Goldwater. By Sonicsoundtracks1, data from 1964 Presidential General Election Votes in Kentucky.
Introduction
Kentucky is one of the states that is known for realignments in its party favor. Historically known to be apart of the Democratic “solid south”, since the 1950s Kentucky is becoming increasingly more Republican. Societal problems such as abortion, gay marriage and economics, major events and how the respective parties handle them, and voter turnout are all apart of the numerous factors that relate to realignment. Because the major parties in Kentucky are Democrat and Republican, the data and information used in this research focuses on them from the late 1800s to current day.
Presidential election map from 2016. The blue represents Democrat votes for Hillary Clinton and the red represents Republican votes for Donald Trump. By Ali Zifan, data from 2016 Presidential Election Statistics.
What is Political Realignment?
Realignment is a political theory that explains the gradual change in party favor in an
area. This change is hard to predict, but usually occurs around a major event such as the Great Depression and the effects on the values of citizens and party members is what causes the change. A major factor for realignment is the continuous change of party values.
Before and during the Civil War, the
Republican party was against the spread of slavery while the Democratic party, who believed in state rights and profit from slavery, wanted to continue the use of slaves. The Democratic party constituted the majority of the South while the Republicans, with Abraham Lincoln as president, constituted the North.
Once the Republican party guided the
country to free the slaves and win the Civil War, civil rights became more ingrained in politics. For a time, most black voters sided with the Republican party who fought for their rights. Moving into the middle of the 20th century, Republicans were less inclined to fight for civil rights and focused more on pushing traditional values and business without strong government influence. These are similar to the values the Democratic party held during the Civil War era. The Democratic party was then supporting civil rights and gathering more votes from minorities.
Videos on the Democrat and Republican Parties
Video from Vox explaining the changes in Republican ideology through President Lincoln's era to President Trump's.
Video from Vox explaining the changes in Democrat ideology through President Jackson's era to President Obama's.
In modern times, the North is much more Democratic than the South, and with the
growth of civil rights and social value discussions in politics, along with the economy, military, and jobs, people are changing their own political values or realigning to parties that support their existing values.
Kentucky's Realignment
9 out of 44 governors in Kentucky since 1850 have been Republican.
Just like the rest of the U.S., Kentucky's political party
preference has changed. However, Kentucky is interesting in that it is a political border state. During the Civil War Kentucky was a Democratic state and apart of the "solid south" that favored slavery and little federal government involvement. It still precariously remained in the Union following Republican President Lincoln during the Civil War. With occasionally voting Republican in presidential elections, Kentucky remained a blue state up until the 1950s. During this time civil rights and union rights issues were surfacing, and Kentuckians were finding that the Republican party held more of the values that would
benefit them. This does not mean that Kentucky suddenly switched to a red state, but in a gradual, very slow process people began voting Republican in presidential elections.
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On an even slower scale, the state elections have had more and more Republicans register
and vote in recent years. In the recent 2019 election, Democrat Andy Beshear won the election for governor in Kentucky, however this does not necessarily suggest another realignment is in play.
This data was collected from the Kentucky Voter Turnout data collection for general elections through 1983-2019.
In a podcast interview with Dr. Anne Cizmar,
Dr. Cizmar discusses Kentucky's tendency to realign and the factors that contribute to the realignments. Dr. Cizmar is an associate professor of government at Eastern Kentucky University and has expert knowledge of political realignment and Kentucky politics. The podcast discusses in more detail factors that contribute to Kentucky's political realignments on presidential and general scales.